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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-24T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-24T04:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47753/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 starting around 2026-07-24T04:38Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption centered around S20E15 best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting as early as 2026-07-24T04:04Z. The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 at 2026-07-27T15:27Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~5nT to 7nT, an increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~420 km/s, and increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-27T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-26T23:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-07-24T09:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 770
Longitude (deg): 10E
Latitude (deg): 08S
Half-angular width (deg): 34

Notes: CME could also include portion of coincident eruption further east 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 60.12 hour(s)
Difference: 16.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-25T03:20Z

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